Covid second wave to end in July, third wave after 6 months: Govt panel

Covid second wave: The amount of havoc created by the second wave of Covid 19 in India has been heart-wrenching. The second wave hitting the youth and adults alike, has been a cause of huge concern in the past few months. With a sudden and sharp rise in cases and deaths, India experienced the most deadly second wave with the shortage of oxygen and hospital beds, in turn causing the death rate to increase alarmingly.

This past week has been a bit better as predicted by the various health officials, with the number of cases falling below the 3 lakh mark, for the first time in nearly a month and the national capital. Delhi which was the worst hit, recovered considerably.

As per the latest reports, according to a three member panel, set up by the Central Government, it is being predicted that the second wave in India is already declining and is expected to flatten by the end of July.

The three member panel set up by the Department Of Science and Technology under the Science Ministry Of Government Of India, applied the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (Positive) and Removed Approach) model, to make these predictions.

According to their report, most of the states have already witnessed a peak in the cases and the few states like Tamil Nadu and the North Eastern States like Tripura, Assam, Meghalaya may experience the peak by the end of May.

The Northern States, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab which are already seeing rise in cases may witness the peak by May third week.

However, the situation is said to improve and India will see a decline in the second wave, and the end of May might see 1.5 lakh cases registered on daily basis and the end of June might see nearly 20,000 cases on a daily basis.

The SUTRA model has been designed to understand the trajectory of Covid to aid in various important decisions. According to the scientists, working on the world, the prediction about the intensity of the second wave went slightly wrong as the Covid appropriate behaviour, took a backseat.

Further, they have said that, by increasing the vaccination drive and following strict Covid appropriate behaviour, the third wave can be prevented.

Moreover, if there is going to be a third wave it would not occur till October 2021 and may happen much later than that. By that time, most of the citizens would be vaccinated and with good immunity in the citizens, the third wave, if it happens might not cause a great deal of damage.

So, with proper care we can avoid the third wave and overcome the second wave successfully in a few months time.

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